M.H. Lamond		PH (TOLL FREE):  1800 999 226
B.Sc., Dip. Met.,		FAX:  08 9242 7262
EMERITUS  M.A.M.O.S.	P.O. BOX 29,  KARRINYUP,  WA 6018	lamond@iinet.net.au

NEUTRAL ENSO  CONDITIONS CONTINUE  OVER THE PACIFIC.

IOD IS NEUTRAL AND PROJECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE SUMMER AT LEAST.

VERY LONG TERM TREND: RECENTLY PUBLISHED RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS THE PRESENCE OF A VERY LONG TERM OSCILLATION IN THE PACIFIC (PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION – PDO).IT IS SIMILAR IN SST PATTERNSTO THE EL NINA⁄LA NINA OSCILLATION IN THE PACIFIC BUT OPERATES ON LONGER TIME SCALE OF 20 – 30 YEARS.”WARM” PDO CONDITIONS PERSISTED THROUGH 1977 TO THE MID 1990'S. THE RESEARCH SUGGESTS THAT  THESE CONDITIONS FAVOUR MORE FREQUENT EL NINO EVENTS. LATEST DATA SHOWS THE 'COOL' PHASE OF THE PDO IS DEVELOPING  AND THIS IS THOUGHT LIKELY TO FAVOUR MORE FREQUENT LA NINA EVENTS OVER THE NEXT 10-20 YEARS.

OUTLOOK FOR 2009: 1904  IS THE ANALOGUE  FOR 2009 AND THE SIMILARITY IS CONFIRMED WITH THE LATEST VALUE OF THE AUSTWEATHER INDEX ALTHOUGH THE YEAR MAY BE RUNNING EARLIER THAN THE ANALOGUE.

MARCH – APRIL: AVERAGE (DECILE 4 – 6 revised using finer detail) THROUGHOUT.

MAY-OCTOBER: DECILE 1 – 3 (MUCH BELOW AVERAGE) WITHIN 200 KM OF THE COAST; DECILE 7 – 9 (ABOVE AVERAGE) IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND DECILE 4 - 6 (AVERAGE IN THE REMAINDER)

 

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA AND ANOTHER IS PASSING SOUTH AFRICA. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGHS ARE  IN MID-ATLANTIC AND FURTHER WEST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

.TROUGHS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH THIS WEEK AND AGAIN MARCH 2 – 8 AND ABOUT MARCH 10 – 18.

. MOST RECENT FIGURE FOR THE SOI IS PLUS 15.2  FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS (  PLUS 12.71 LAST WEEK .

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND TROPICAL   OUTFLOWS  : THERE HAVE BEEN  NO SIGNIFICANT  CHANGES IN SST OVER THE PAST WEEK .

.. TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT THE END OF TROPICAL OUTFLOWS.

RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR QUEENSLAND       ) (FOR THE 24 HOURS UP TO 11PM ON THE DAY): FROM TODAY THROUGH TO TUES  2^ND  MARCH,2009

(FORECAST BASED ON STANDARD MODEL)

TUES	5 – 15 MM NORTH OF GLADSTONE – HUGHENDEN – CLONCURRY;
WED	DITTO
THURS	5 – 15 MM NORTH OF MKAY – CLONCURRY
FRI	5 – 15 MM NORTH OF TOWNSVILLE – HANN RIVER – CLONCURRY
SAT	5 – 25 MM WITHIN 100 KM OF CAIRNS
SUN	5 – 15 MM WITHIN 100 KM OF COOKTOWN – KOWANYAMA
MON	DITTO
TUES	DITTO
	OUTLOOK FROM COMPUTER MODEL FOR PERIOD   MAR  3 – 10:RAINFALL EVENTS PROJECTED DAILY

NEXT SCHEDULED UPDATE   TUESDAY 3 MARCH